Geostatistical Seismic Analysis and Hazard Assessment for Israel

Research Questions

What are the earthquake hazard zones and risk levels for the State of Israel, based on geographical, geological, and historical seismic data?
What proportion of the State of Israel's population is at each level of risk?

Background Information

Earthquakes are natural geological phenomena typically occurring at the boundaries of tectonic plates, closely associated with plate tectonics theory. This theory posits that the Earth's crust comprises several plates that glide over the hot magma layer beneath. Contacts between these plates often lead to the formation of mountain ranges, volcanic activity, and earthquakes.

Earthquakes can range from barely perceptible low-magnitude events, felt only a few kilometers from the epicenter, to severe occurrences felt hundreds of kilometers away. Some earthquakes are so powerful they can tear the ground apart, potentially resulting in fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure.

The majority of the world's seismic activity occurs along the tectonic plate boundaries, notably within the "Ring of Fire" in the Pacific Ocean basin, which accounts for about 90% of global earthquakes.

Israel, situated between latitudes 30°N to 33°N and longitudes 34°E to 36°E, lies far from the "Ring of Fire." However, it is located at the confluence of the Eurasian, African, and Arabian plates. The region's seismic activity primarily results from the interaction between the Arabian plate and the Sinai microplate (a segment of the African plate) moving past each other in a transform motion. Additional seismic events are caused by the subduction of the Nubian plate (part of the African plate) beneath the Anatolia sub-plate (part of the Eurasian plate) near the area known as the 'Cyprian Arc'. (Refer to Figure 1).

Figure 1: Tectonic Plate Interactions and Regional Geography Affecting Seismic Activity in Israel. The left panel illustrates the tectonic plates influencing seismic activity in the region surrounding Israel, highlighting the interaction between the Arabian plate, the Sinai microplate, and the Nubian plate with the Anatolia sub-plate (Image Source). The right panel shows a map of the State of Israel and its immediate vicinity, indicating its geographical position relative to the mentioned tectonic boundaries (Image Source).

While no method currently exists for predicting earthquakes, understanding the geographical and geophysical parameters of the study area is crucial due to the potential damage earthquakes can cause. This knowledge is vital for assessing impacts on a region's demographics and critical infrastructure.

Israeli researchers, analyzing recorded earthquake activities over the last 1,000 years, have found that a catastrophic earthquake (with a magnitude of 6 or 7 on the Richter scale—a scale used to measure earthquake magnitude) occurs approximately every 100 years. With an estimated population of 9.3 million people in 2020 spread across 22,000 square kilometers, and given the narrow shape of the country from north to south and east to west, Israel's close proximity to two active faults underscores the importance of identifying potential seismic hazard zones. This determination is based on geographical characteristics, geological features, and historical seismic events in and around Israel.

Project Objectives

Conduct geospatial analysis of earthquake events within the State of Israel and historical seismic activity in the surrounding areas.
Develop a Seismic Hazard Zonation Map (SHZM) to identify areas of high, moderate, and low risk.
Assess the demographic impact by correlating cities and settlement locations with their current populations to their respective risk levels.

Potential Data Sources
For the analysis required in this project, I will rely on a variety of data sources:

Expected Results

I anticipate identifying zones at a higher seismic risk level closer to the fault lines along the eastern and northern borders of Israel, correlating with areas of intense tectonic activity between the Eurasian and African plates.

Furthermore, it is expected that the majority of Israel’s population, residing near the Mediterranean coastline and on softer bedrock, will be at a lower immediate risk compared to those near the Jordan border (adjacent to the Dead Sea rift fault) or in the Golan Heights and northern Israel (near the 'Cyprian Arc' seismic activity zone).

Bibliography

Al-Dogom, D., Schuckma, K., & Al-Ruzouq, R. (2018). Geostatistical Seismic Analysis and Hazard Assessment; United Arab Emirates. International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 42(3/W4).
Douglas, J. (2020), Ground motion prediction equations 1964-2020, http://www.gmpe.org.uk
Yagoub, M. M. (2015). Spatio-temporal and hazard mapping of Earthquake in UAE (1984–2012): Remote sensing and GIS application. Geo-environmental Disasters, 2(1), 13.

Historical Earthquake Events Data: This will be sourced from the USGS earthquake catalog, providing a comprehensive record of seismic events.

Fault Lines (Tectonic Plates Borders): Data on tectonic plate boundaries will be obtained from a GitHub repository dedicated to geospatial data.

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Layer: The DEM layer, crucial for understanding terrain elevations, will be sourced from the USGS website.

Geology/Soil Feature Layer: Information on soil types and geology will be acquired from the Israeli Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development's website.

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Attenuation Equation: This equation, essential for creating a PGA map (raster layer), will be referenced from Joyner & Boore (1981)'s academic article

Israel Cities and Settlement Location: The geographical data of cities and settlements will be sourced from the 'Survey of Israel' authority website

Population Data (by Settlement) for the State of Israel: Demographic information will be obtained from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics.

World Countries’ Borders: For clipping the Area of Interest (AOI), data will be sourced from the 'ArcGIS Hub' website.