Israeli researchers contend that, based on historical seismic activity in the region, Israel is due for a catastrophic earthquake approximately every 100 years. Situated near two active fault lines—the Arabian-African plate boundary to the east and the 'Cyprian Arc' to the north—Israel is vulnerable to seismic threats. With an estimated population of nearly 9.3 million in 2020 dispersed across its narrow terrain, and lacking any method to predict earthquakes, it becomes crucial to identify the earthquake hazard zones and assess the risk level for Israel based on geographical, geological, and historical seismic data. Additionally, determining the proportion of Israel's population at risk is essential.

 

This project aims to address these questions by performing a geospatial analysis of the Israeli territory using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and models. This analysis will incorporate data on earthquake activity, including geographical and geological characteristics, as well as records of past earthquakes. The principal output of this project will be a Seismic Hazard Zonation Map (SHZM), which will delineate the risk levels across different areas in Israel. By integrating this map with data on settlements and population, the project will also elucidate the extent of the population at risk due to seismic activity.

 

It is anticipated that areas closer to the fault lines along Israel's eastern and northern borders will be identified as higher risk zones. However, it is expected that the majority of the Israeli population will not be at significant risk, as they reside closer to the Mediterranean coastline, thereby being situated further from the primary zones of seismic activity.